House / SC-1South Carolina's 1st district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans
Jenny Costa Honeycutt is slightly favored in SC-1
Nancy Lacore30%Democrat
Jenny Costa Honeycutt70%Republican
Median marginR+3.080%: R+11.0 to D+5.0
Cook PVIR+62026 lines
Tipping point0.8%decides the majority
District pollsR+2.32 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Oct 22 | 770 LV | 47–45 D+2.0 |
| GQR (D) | Jul 22 | 400 LV | 48–50 R+2.0 |