House / AZ-6Arizona's 6th district 2026 · held by Republicans
JoAnna Mendoza is slightly favored in AZ-6
JoAnna Mendoza74%Democrat
Juan Ciscomani26%Republican · incumbent
Median marginD+4.080%: R+4.0 to D+11.0
Cook PVIEVEN2026 lines
Tipping point2.3%decides the majority
District pollsD+0.22 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| RedBox Research (D) | Oct 23 | 837 LV | 47–43 D+4.0 |
| Normington Petts (D) | Jun 11 | 500 LV | 47–45 D+2.0 |