House / NC-3North Carolina's 3rd district 2026 · held by Republicans · new 2026 map

Republican is favored in NC-3

Democrat22%Democrat

Republican78%Republican · incumbent

Median marginR+5.080%: R+13.0 to D+3.0

Cook PVIR+62026 lines

Tipping point0.5%decides the majority

District pollsNonefundamentals only

Range of outcomes

Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27

CookSolid R

Inside ElectionsSolid R

SabatoSolid R

Race to the WHLikely R

EconomistLikely R

Split TicketSolid R

DDHQLikely R

FiftyPlusOneLikely R

Fox NewsSolid R

Silver BulletinLikely R

Pollster	Field end	Sample	Result
No public district polls found.