Dwayne Romero25%Democrat
Jeff Hurd75%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+4.080%: R+11.0 to D+4.0
Cook PVIR+52026 lines
Tipping point0.5%decides the majority
District pollsR+3.02 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC (D) | Oct 21 | 402 LV | 47–46 D+1.0 |
| Keating Research (D) | Jul 23 | 500 LV | 45–46 R+1.0 |