House / MN-1Minnesota's 1st district 2026 · held by Republicans
Brad Finstad is slightly favored in MN-1
Jake Johnson27%Democrat
Brad Finstad73%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+3.080%: R+11.0 to D+4.0
Cook PVIR+62026 lines
Tipping point0.6%decides the majority
District pollsR+0.23 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Oct 14 | 588 LV | 43–43 Even |
| SurveyUSA | Oct 9 | 565 LV | 46–44 D+2.0 |
| GBAO (D) | Sep 21 | 500 LV | 47–46 D+1.0 |