House / WA-3Washington's 3rd district 2026 · held by Democrats
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is slightly favored in WA-3
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez72%Democrat · incumbent
John Braun28%Republican
Median marginD+3.080%: R+4.0 to D+10.0
Cook PVIR+22026 lines
Tipping point2.4%decides the majority
District pollsR+1.63 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D) | Oct 21 | 551 LV | 45–44 D+1.0 |
| DHM Research | Sep 27 | 543 LV | 44–46 R+2.0 |
| Emerson College | Jul 10 | 500 LV | 42–43 R+1.0 |