House / VA-2Virginia's 2nd district 2026 · held by Republicans
Elaine Luria is slightly favored in VA-2
Elaine Luria75%Democrat
Jen Kiggans25%Republican · incumbent
Median marginD+4.080%: R+4.0 to D+11.0
Cook PVIEVEN2026 lines
Tipping point2.5%decides the majority
District pollsD+1.22 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Newport University | Oct 10 | 702 LV | 46–43 D+3.0 |
| Tulchin Research (D) | Jul 13 | 700 LV | 47–47 Even |