House / CA-22California's 22nd district 2026 · held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Randy Villegas is favored in CA-22
Randy Villegas87%Democrat
David Valadao13%Republican · incumbent
Median marginD+7.080%: R+1.0 to D+15.0
Cook PVID+12026 lines
Tipping point1.7%decides the majority
District pollsD+1.01 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) | Jun 21 | 800 LV | 48–44 D+4.0 |