House / TX-35Texas's 35th district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Johnny Garcia is a slight favorite in TX-35
Johnny Garcia51%Democrat
Carlos De La Cruz49%Republican
Median marginEven80%: R+7.0 to D+7.0
Cook PVIR+42026 lines
Tipping point1.6%decides the majority
District pollsR+0.74 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Post/Schar School | Oct 19 | 606 LV | 47–48 R+1.0 |
| Normington Petts (D) | Oct 14 | 400 LV | 47–45 D+2.0 |
| Emerson College | Oct 14 | 417 LV | 51–49 D+2.0 |
| Normington Petts (D) | Aug 31 | 500 LV | 44–45 R+1.0 |