House / FL-14Florida's 14th district 2026 · held by Democrats · new 2026 map
Kathy Castor is favored in FL-14
Kathy Castor78%Democrat · incumbent
Mike Beltran22%Republican
Median marginD+4.080%: R+3.0 to D+12.0
Cook PVIR+42026 lines
Tipping point2.5%decides the majority
District pollsD+7.02 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 14 | 315 LV | 48–43 D+5.0 |
| St. Pete Polls/FloridaPolitics.com | Jul 15 | 469 LV | 46.2–37.5 D+8.7 |