Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
House / WI-7Wisconsin's 7th district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans

Republican is heavily favored in WI-7

Democrat2%Democrat
Republican98%Republican
Median marginR+13.080%: R+21.0 to R+5.0
Cook PVIR+112026 lines
Tipping point0.0%decides the majority
District pollsNonefundamentals only

Range of outcomes

How the forecast is built

Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).

Chance of winning over time

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

What the forecasters say

Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27
CookSolid R
Inside ElectionsSolid R
SabatoSolid R
Race to the WHLikely R
EconomistLikely R
Split TicketSolid R
DDHQSolid R
FiftyPlusOneSolid R
Fox NewsSolid R
Silver BulletinSolid R

What this seat means for control

District polls

PollsterField endSampleResult
No public district polls found.