House / WI-3Wisconsin's 3rd district 2026 · held by Republicans
Rebecca Cooke is a slight favorite in WI-3
Rebecca Cooke50%Democrat
Derrick Van Orden50%Republican · incumbent
Median marginEven80%: R+8.0 to D+8.0
Cook PVIR+32026 lines
Tipping point1.4%decides the majority
District pollsD+1.01 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research (D) | Jun 25 | 535 LV | 50–46 D+4.0 |