House / IA-2Iowa's 2nd district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans
Lindsay James is a slight favorite in IA-2
Lindsay James56%Democrat
Joe Mitchell44%Republican
Median marginD+1.080%: R+7.0 to D+8.0
Cook PVIR+42026 lines
Tipping point1.7%decides the majority
District pollsD+1.12 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 14 | 344 LV | 50–47 D+3.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | Jul 19 | – LV | 46–45 D+1.0 |