House / FL-7Florida's 7th district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Ryan Elijah is slightly favored in FL-7
Bale Dalton39%Democrat
Ryan Elijah61%Republican
Median marginR+2.080%: R+10.0 to D+6.0
Cook PVIR+52026 lines
Tipping point1.0%decides the majority
District pollsR+3.01 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC (D) | Oct 19 | 414 LV | 45–45 Even |