House / AZ-5Arizona's 5th district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans

Republican is heavily favored in AZ-5

Democrat4%Democrat

Republican96%Republican

Median marginR+11.080%: R+20.0 to R+3.0

Cook PVIR+102026 lines

Tipping point0.0%decides the majority

District pollsNonefundamentals only

Range of outcomes

Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27

CookSolid R

Inside ElectionsSolid R

SabatoSolid R

Race to the WHSolid R

EconomistLean R

Split TicketSolid R

DDHQLikely R

FiftyPlusOneSolid R

Fox NewsSolid R

Silver BulletinSolid R

Pollster	Field end	Sample	Result
No public district polls found.