House / NY-1New York's 1st district 2026 · held by Republicans
Nick LaLota is slightly favored in NY-1
Christopher Gallant36%Democrat
Nick LaLota64%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+2.080%: R+10.0 to D+6.0
Cook PVIR+42026 lines
Tipping point0.9%decides the majority
District pollsNonefundamentals only
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| No public district polls found. | |||