Midterm Forecast2026 · Senate & House
20,000 simulated elections · Model run Oct 28, 12:50 AM ETPolls through Oct 27 · Election Nov 3
House / NY-3New York's 3rd district 2026 · held by Democrats

Tom Suozzi is heavily favored in NY-3

Tom Suozzi96%Democrat · incumbent
Mike LiPetri4%Republican
Median marginD+12.080%: D+4.0 to D+20.0
Cook PVIEVEN2026 lines
Tipping point0.7%decides the majority
District pollsNonefundamentals only

Range of outcomes

How the forecast is built

Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.

Chance of winning over time

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

What the forecasters say

Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27
CookLikely D
Inside ElectionsLean D
SabatoLean D
Race to the WHLean D
EconomistLikely D
Split TicketSolid D
DDHQLikely D
FiftyPlusOneLikely D
Fox NewsLean D
Silver BulletinSolid D

What this seat means for control

District polls

PollsterField endSampleResult
No public district polls found.