J. D. Ford10%Democrat
Victoria Spartz90%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+7.080%: R+15.0 to Even
Cook PVIR+82026 lines
Tipping point0.1%decides the majority
District pollsR+3.22 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus | Oct 22 | 601 LV | 44.6–47.4 R+2.8 |
| Expedition Strategies (D) | Oct 4 | 600 LV | 47–48 R+1.0 |