House / NM-2New Mexico's 2nd district 2026 · held by Democrats
Gabe Vasquez is heavily favored in NM-2
Gabe Vasquez92%Democrat · incumbent
Greg Cunningham8%Republican
Median marginD+8.080%: D+1.0 to D+15.0
Cook PVIEVEN2026 lines
Tipping point1.8%decides the majority
District pollsD+3.42 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling | Oct 9 | 383 LV | 48–44 D+4.0 |
| SurveyUSA/KOB | Sep 2 | 554 LV | 46–43 D+3.0 |