House / NY-21New York's 21st district 2026 · open seat, held by Republicans
Anthony Constantino is favored in NY-21
Blake Gendebien14%Democrat
Anthony Constantino86%Republican
Median marginR+6.080%: R+13.0 to D+1.0
Cook PVIR+102026 lines
Tipping point0.2%decides the majority
District pollsR+1.34 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 0.0 points (open seat, none).
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Oct 13 | 613 LV | 44–46 R+2.0 |
| Siena University | Oct 6 | 496 LV | 46–42 D+4.0 |
| J.L. Partners | Aug 17 | 500 LV | 40–53 R+13.0 |
| SurveyUSA | Aug 8 | 800 RV | 43–39 D+4.0 |