House / VA-1Virginia's 1st district 2026 · held by Republicans
Shannon Taylor is a slight favorite in VA-1
Shannon Taylor51%Democrat
Rob Wittman49%Republican · incumbent
Median marginEven80%: R+7.0 to D+7.0
Cook PVIR+32026 lines
Tipping point1.6%decides the majority
District pollsD+0.63 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Oct 22 | 570 LV | 47–46 D+1.0 |
| Washington Post/Schar School | Sep 28 | 609 LV | 50–46 D+4.0 |
| DCCC Targeting Team (D) | Sep 17 | 519 LV | 46–47 R+1.0 |