House / FL-21Florida's 21st district 2026 · held by Republicans · new 2026 map

Republican is favored in FL-21

Democrat14%Democrat

Republican86%Republican · incumbent

Median marginR+7.080%: R+15.0 to D+1.0

Cook PVIR+72026 lines

Tipping point0.3%decides the majority

District pollsNonefundamentals only

Range of outcomes

Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.

Daily reruns of the model

Each day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.

Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27

CookSolid R

Inside ElectionsSolid R

SabatoSolid R

Race to the WHLikely R

EconomistLikely R

Split TicketSolid R

DDHQLikely R

FiftyPlusOneSolid R

Fox NewsSolid R

Silver BulletinSolid R

Pollster	Field end	Sample	Result
No public district polls found.