House / OH-10Ohio's 10th district 2026 · held by Republicans · new 2026 map
Mike Turner is slightly favored in OH-10
Kristina Knickerbocker28%Democrat
Mike Turner72%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+3.080%: R+11.0 to D+4.0
Cook PVIR+42026 lines
Tipping point0.5%decides the majority
District pollsR+6.53 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC (D) | Oct 13 | 535 LV | 47–44 D+3.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | Jul 23 | 700 LV | 42–49 R+7.0 |
| FM3 Research (D) | Jul 12 | 535 LV | 41–48 R+7.0 |