House / AL-2Alabama's 2nd district 2026 · held by Democrats · new 2026 map
Rhett Marques is slightly favored in AL-2
Shomari Figures27%Democrat · incumbent
Rhett Marques73%Republican
Median marginR+4.080%: R+11.0 to D+4.0
Cook PVIR+72026 lines
Tipping point0.7%decides the majority
District pollsR+3.02 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 1.5 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research (D) | Aug 31 | – LV | 47–47 Even |
| DCCC (D) | Jul 30 | 421 LV | 46–46 Even |