House / MO-2Missouri's 2nd district 2026 · held by Republicans
Ann Wagner is slightly favored in MO-2
Fred Wellman32%Democrat
Ann Wagner68%Republican · incumbent
Median marginR+3.080%: R+10.0 to D+5.0
Cook PVIR+62026 lines
Tipping point0.6%decides the majority
District pollsD+1.23 polls, adjusted
Range of outcomes
How the forecast is built
Lean: twice the PVI plus the generic ballot (D+8.7). Incumbency adds 3.0 points.
Chance of winning over time
Daily reruns of the modelEach day is a fresh run of today's model using only the polls that had finished by the day before. Daily runs since Jul 1.
What the forecasters say
Ten published ratings; Cook updated through Oct 27What this seat means for control
District polls
| Pollster | Field end | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | Oct 20 | 631 LV | 46–45 D+1.0 |
| Emerson | Oct 14 | 401 LV | 51–46 D+5.0 |
| Remington Research Group | Sep 15 | 565 LV | 42–43 R+1.0 |